Conny Waters – AncientPages.com – Urban centers have always experienced fluctuations in population due to various factors such as economic conditions, lifestyle preferences, air quality, and even pandemics. Historically, cities were established by agrarian populations who lived in small settlements to minimize travel between their homes and farms. Despite the higher costs associated with city living—such as increased exposure to diseases, competition for resources, and systemic inequality—people have continued to migrate to urban areas.
Caracol, another large ancient Mayan archaeological site, is in Belize. Credit: Douglas Kennett
This phenomenon has been a topic of debate among scholars for years. UC Santa Barbara archaeologist Douglas Kennett has explored this issue through his research on Classic Maya cities. His recent study delves into the population ecology theory to identify the drivers of urbanization in these ancient regions. The findings reveal that multiple overlapping factors contribute to both the growth and decline of urban centers, offering new insights into this complex subject.
“We determined that the rise and expansion of Classic Maya cities resulted from the interaction of climate downturns, intergroup conflict and the presence of strong economies of scale realized through capital investments in agricultural infrastructure,” Kennett said. “These factors promoted the coevolution of urbanism, systemic inequality and patron-client relationships in cities.”
Using that same framework, he added, the researchers also determined that deurbanization set in “when the benefits of urban living no longer outweighed the costs, as environments were degraded near cities and climate amelioration improved the livability of rural areas where people would have more freedom and autonomy.”
The team’s initial focus was on understanding the impact of climate change, particularly drought, on the decline of Classic Maya cities. Since 2012, they have been gathering archaeological data related to population changes, conflict, and agricultural infrastructure investments. Recently, they accessed high-resolution climatic data that enhanced their research capabilities.
According to Kennett, advancements in computational modeling enabled them to analyze relationships between these datasets in unprecedented ways. Their findings integrate previously debated theories of urbanization—such as environmental stress, warfare, and economic factors—into a cohesive dynamic model inspired by population ecology concepts. The study also addresses the paradox of why agrarian populations would choose urbanization despite its high costs when their economy typically encourages dispersal over aggregation.
Tikal, in Guatemala, is among the major sites of the Classic Mayan civilization. Credit: JancickaL – Pixabay – Public Domain
“The biggest surprise for me was that the abandonment of cities occurred under improving climatic conditions,” Kennett noted. “We have long thought that the decline of Classic Maya cities partially resulted from an extended period of drought. It turns out to be a much more complicated and interesting story.”
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Overall, the new work provides essential insights into understanding and managing both current and future urban development. It establishes timeless, universal principles regarding the aggregation and dispersion of populations, thereby contributing significantly to the field.
The study was published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Written by Conny Waters – AncientPages.com Staff Writer